Mumbai: The Real GDP of India will grow 9.4 per cent in FY22 and decelerate to 7.5 per cent for FY23 as the base effects result in the higher growth in the ongoing fiscal wear-off, the report by economists at HDFC Bank released on Wednesday said.
Th report added that the official data print on the GDP will show a 7.8 per cent expansion on a year-on-year basis for the September 2021 quarter.
In FY21, the GDP had contracted 7.3 per cent due to the pandemic. For FY22, the RBI expects GDP to clock a growth of 9.5 per cent, which will slow to 7.8 per cent in FY23. The GDP had expanded by over 20 per cent for the first quarter on the lower base. The official data for the second quarter is set to be released on November 30.
The report by HDFC Bank said some part of the expected 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter will be due to a low base from a year when the economy contracted by 7.4 per cent but there is likely to be a sequential improvement in GDP growth in Q2FY22. On a sequential basis, GDP is expected to grow 9.75 per cent in Q2 from a contraction of 16.9 per cent in the second wave-hit previous quarter, reflecting a revival in economic activity.
“With support from pent-up demand and easing of mobility restrictions in the country, economic activity (as captured by a number of high frequency indicators) moved above pre-second wave levels in early August and has remained robust since then,” the report said.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing growth will come at four per cent in Q2FY22, industry will be at 6.3 per cent and services at 8.6 per cent, it added.
When looked at from a gross value added (GVA) basis, the September 2021 quarter growth will come at 7.3 per cent, the bank estimated, explaining that the gap between GDP and GVA is likely to be driven by higher tax revenue collection and lower subsidy pay-outs in this quarter.
The data is in line with an SBI report released a day before on Tuesday, where SBI Research upgraded India’s GDP growth projection for financial year 2022 to the range of 9.3-9.6 per cent from its earlier estimates of 8.5-9 per cent. Both the revised GDP estimates are in-line with RBI’s projection of 9.5 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal year.
The projection comes as the country recorded only 11 per cent increase in COVID-19 cases during the July-September quarter of 2021, second-lowest among the top 15 most affected countries.