The country received 24 per cent less rainfall than normal in August, belying the IMD’s predictions for the month, but according to the latest forecast it is expected to be above normal in September. Above normal rainfall to normal rainfall is likely over many parts of central India in September, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said on Wednesday.
The IMD also “updated” the overall rainfall forecast for the season and it is now likely to be around the lower end of normal rainfall, he added. “Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during September is most likely to be above normal (over 110 per cent of the Long Period Average),” the IMD said.
The monsoon deficit now stands at nine per cent and this is expected to come down due to good rainfall during September, Mohapatra said. July had recorded seven per cent less rainfall, while June had recorded 10 per cent more rainfall, according the meteorological department.
The country received 24 per cent less rainfall than normal in August, but rainfall is expected to be above normal in September, the IMD said in its forecast for the month.
Mohapatra also said that normal to below rainfall is expected over north and northeast India, and southern parts of south India. He said the latest global model forecasts indicate that prevailing ENSO (El Nino) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue over the Indian Ocean region during September.
However, sea surface temperatures (SST) over the central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing signs of cooling and there is an increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina conditions at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter, the IMD chief said. “As SST conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on the Indian monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins,” Mohapatra said.